Medium and Heavy-Duty Electrification Costs for MY 2027- 2030

This report evaluates the cost of electrifying vehicles in several medium‐ and heavy‐duty market segments such as class 8 transit and class 7 school buses, class 3‐7 shuttles & delivery vehicles, and class 8 Refuse haulers, whose use patterns are concentrated in urban areas. Emissions from diesel vehicles in these categories are significant sources of pollutants that are damaging to human health and the environment, including particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, and greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gas and NOx regulations will continue to become stricter, with the next milestones planned to take effect in 2024 and 2027. To accomplish these targets, engine, aftertreatment, and transmission technology will be developed that improves fuel economy and reduces emissions, adding costs to the ICE system. At the same time, battery, motor, and power electronics costs are decreasing more rapidly than predictions made in the past decade. This report evaluates the incremental costs at each of these milestones and compile a comprehensive total cost of ownership for a vehicle purchased in 2027. When considering vehicle purchase price alone